Evolution of Global Trade

International Trade Holds Strong Despite Uncertainty

A report recently published by NYU Stern and DHL forecasts global trade volumes will grow at a compound annual rate of 3.1% from 2024 to 2029, slightly faster than the past decade, despite record-high uncertainty. While the U.S. government has announced new tariff hikes, the report points out their global impact will be limited: trade is still expected to grow, though at a slower pace if tariffs are implemented.

India is expected to generate 6% of additional global trade growth, behind China (12%) and the U.S. (10%), with Vietnam, Indonesia, and the Philippines also leading in growth speed and scale. Despite geopolitical tensions, trade in manufactured goods remains dominant, with mineral fuels, electrical machinery, industrial machinery, and pharmaceuticals seeing the largest value increases between 2017 and 2022.

The report also notes that in 2024, average trade distance reached a record 5,000 km, challenging expectations of regionalization. Trade continues to drive global innovation, competition, and prosperity, showing resilience in the face of policy shifts and uncertainty.

Source: DHL Trade Atlas 2025